Research on Cost Prediction of Air-film Concrete Based on FA-SVR
项崇涛 XIANG Chong-tao
（中交第三公路工程局有限公司，武汉 430035）
（CCCC Third Highway Engineering Bureau Co.，Ltd.，Wuhan 430035，China）
摘要： 在建筑施工领域，成本预测是成本控制中的重要环节。本研究以气膜混凝土为对象，根据其施工成本占比大的特点，对其施工成本精确预测，以实现有效控制总体成本目的。首先，在研究气膜混凝土主体结构特点基础上，建立了一套施工成本预测指标体系，进而提出一种基于萤火虫算法（FA）和改进支持向量回归机（SVR）的成本预测模型。其次，结合实际案例，选取21个样本预测气膜混凝土施工成本，将16个样本作为基础集，其余5个为测试集。最后，研究表明：FA-SVR模型的相对误差和标准误差均小于PSO-SVR模型，预测精度更高，证明了该方法的科学性和可行性。
Abstract: In the field of construction, cost prediction is an important link in cost control. This study takes air film concrete as the object, and accurately predicts its construction cost according to the characteristics of its large proportion of construction cost, so as to effectively control the overall cost. Firstly, based on the study of the main structure characteristics of air film concrete, a set of construction cost prediction index system is established, and then a cost prediction model based on firefly algorithm (FA) and improved support vector regression (SVR) is proposed. Secondly, combined with practical cases, 21 samples are selected to predict the construction cost of air film concrete, 16 samples are used as the basic set, and the other 5 are the test set. Finally, the research shows that the relative error and standard error of fa-svr model are less than that of PSO-SVR model, and the prediction accuracy is higher, which proves the scientificity and feasibility of this method.
关键词： 气膜混凝土；施工成本；萤火虫算法
Key words: air film concrete；construction cost；firefly algorithm
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1006-4311.2022.21.036.
文章出处：项崇涛. 基于FA-SVR的气膜混凝土成本预测研究[J]. 价值工程,2022,41(21):115-118.
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