Improvement and Application of Forecasting Method in Quality Earned Value Analysis
杨继华① YANG Ji-hua；赵冰冰② ZHAO Bing-bing；
史小丽③ SHI Xiao-li；罗雅琼③ LUO Ya-qiong
（①陕西省交通运输工程造价事务中心，西安 710000；②韶关市交通运输局，韶关 512000；
③长安大学公路学院，西安 710000）
（①Shaanxi Transportation Engineering Cost Affairs Center，Xi'an 710000，China；
②Shaoguan Transportation Bureau，Shaoguan 512000，China；③School of Highway，Chang'an University，Xi'an 710000，China）
摘要： 由于传统挣值法和质量挣值法的预测方法都是基于累计绩效指数进行计算的，而在实际工程施工过程中，各检查时点的时间段内的绩效指数有时相差很大，而累计绩效指数预测会对数据进行平均，不利于反映项目最新进展情况，从而造成预测结果与实际值相差较大。基于此，本文提出临近时点绩效的概念对预测方法进行改进，以实体工程为依托，运用临近时点绩效法对现阶段工程成本和进度进行评估以及完工尚需成本进行预测并验证其准确性和可靠性。
Abstract: The traditional earned value method and the quality earned value method are based on the calculated cumulative performance index. In the actual construction process of the project, the performance index in the time period of each inspection point is sometimes very different. While the cumulative performance index forecast will average the data, which is not conducive to reflecting the latest progress of the project, resulting in a large difference between the forecast result and the actual value. Based on this, this paper proposes the concept of near-in-time performance to improve the forecasting method. Based on the actual project, the near-in-time performance method is used to evaluate the cost and progress of the current stage of the project, as well as predict the cost of completion and verify its accuracy and reliability.
关键词： 质量挣值；临近时点；成本预测
Key words: quality earned value；near-in-time check point；cost forecast
中图分类号：F224.5 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1006-4311（2023）01-104-04
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1006-4311.2023.01.034.
文章出处：杨继华,赵冰冰,史小丽,等. 质量挣值分析中预测方法的改进与应用[J]. 价值工程,2023,42(1):104-107.
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